Any Colour You Like

There are constant (and somewhat annaoying) debates about whether climate change is really happening. The best way to tell in my opinion that I read recently involves long periods of ‘record collecting’ and the harmonic series. What is he on about you may wonder?

Take an example. Annual rainfall in the UK. Data collection began in 1748 and clearly that year will have experienced record levels of rainfall by default. If rainfall is a random event unaltered by humans then the next year there is a 50 – 50 chance of there being a new record. Year three will have a 1 in 3 chance and so on. It turns out that the expected number of record years follows the harmonic series i.e. 1+(1/2)+(1/3)+(1/4)+(1/5)…+(1/n) up to the number of years we have been keeping track. This clearly grows very slowly and in the 256ish years since 1748 we would expect 6.12 record years. This was fine up untill 2004 but has started going significantly awry…

I found the following post on an internal GE message board and found it interesting:

What is the right formula for self-confidence?

In order to succeed in life you must have self-confidence. Self-confidence is the amount of ones belief in ones ability. That’s great, but how does this work? Do I need to believe in myself more or do I need to acquire more skill or both.

Let’s consider believing in myself. How far can that take me? Can it compensate for a lack of skill? The answer is yes. We have all witnessed people in sports, business, etc., achieve beyond their capabilities. We call them over achievers. However, are they able to sustain a high level of performance? The answer is most cannot. They have had their 15 minutes of fame.

Let’s consider ones ability. How far can this take me? Can it compensate for a lack of belief in ones self? The answer is yes. We have all witnessed people in sports, business, etc., who trained and worked hard to achieve success. We call this the American Way. Can people continue to succeed on hard work alone?

There is one common denominator that is implied in the formula for self-confidence. It is success. You have heard it said, “Success breeds success.” However, success is not possible without self-confidence. That brings us back to the original question, how does this work.

The definition suggests the amount of ones belief is the key. If so, how do I assure that I have the right amount of belief. If I have less ability, do I need more belief and vice versa. I think we all struggle, some more than others, believing in our abilities. That is probably a good thing because if we did not, self-confidence would be replaced with arrogance.

It’s a really great concept. A group of enthusiastic people take over an abandoned building, bring along a random missmatch of furniture, candles and cutlery and set up shop. Or should I say kitchen. They then distribute invitations to partake of fine cuisine via blogs and texts. Just before they open you get a message telling you when the restaurant will be and for how long. You then go along and enjoy a three course meal and leave a donation afterwards.

The food was good if somewhat weird, but definately ambitious. Pigs head stew and ‘wet’ paella…

Google have recently posted a note on open software, open information and the open internet. It finally explains a fair amount about the business model of Android – something which has mystified many for quite some time – and is generally good reading if you such way inclined…

For some reason Wills Memorial is green tonight

Hmm, not much written here in a long time. Very bad. Needless to say I am projecting like mad, kitesurfing like crazy and have booked an epic snowbaord holiday for after New Year. Speaking of… I hope people are around in Malmö for NYeve =)

Oh I nearly forgot – holidays that are now booked up and paid for:

3rd Aug to 12th Aug
Essaouira, Morocco, Kitesurfing, Cous Cous, Mint Tea, Kitesurfing, Waves, Kitesurfing

18th Aug to 2nd Sept
Tokyo, Kyoto, Nara, Japan, Mt Fuji, Sushi, Technology, Bullet Train, Zen Gardens

LIVING THE DREAM!

I cannot wait until this is all over…

I like the way everyone seems a few orders of magnitude happier recently. It can only be because the days are getting longer and brighter, and soon the flipflops can come out of the cupboard. We tried to have a barbeque a few days ago but unfortunately sainsbury’s were not expecting sunshine and were not stocking coal. Good fun anyway. I ditched the boots and gloves for kitesurfing yesterday as well. That is definitely another promising sign.

It is good that it is the easter holiday because bristol is absolutely empty without the students. There is no need to weave and dodge going up Park Street and there is noticeably less car noise. Uni is empty and I can get the whole library to myself =)