Any Colour You Like

There are constant (and somewhat annaoying) debates about whether climate change is really happening. The best way to tell in my opinion that I read recently involves long periods of ‘record collecting’ and the harmonic series. What is he on about you may wonder?

Take an example. Annual rainfall in the UK. Data collection began in 1748 and clearly that year will have experienced record levels of rainfall by default. If rainfall is a random event unaltered by humans then the next year there is a 50 – 50 chance of there being a new record. Year three will have a 1 in 3 chance and so on. It turns out that the expected number of record years follows the harmonic series i.e. 1+(1/2)+(1/3)+(1/4)+(1/5)…+(1/n) up to the number of years we have been keeping track. This clearly grows very slowly and in the 256ish years since 1748 we would expect 6.12 record years. This was fine up untill 2004 but has started going significantly awry…

I found the following post on an internal GE message board and found it interesting:

What is the right formula for self-confidence?

In order to succeed in life you must have self-confidence. Self-confidence is the amount of ones belief in ones ability. That’s great, but how does this work? Do I need to believe in myself more or do I need to acquire more skill or both.

Let’s consider believing in myself. How far can that take me? Can it compensate for a lack of skill? The answer is yes. We have all witnessed people in sports, business, etc., achieve beyond their capabilities. We call them over achievers. However, are they able to sustain a high level of performance? The answer is most cannot. They have had their 15 minutes of fame.

Let’s consider ones ability. How far can this take me? Can it compensate for a lack of belief in ones self? The answer is yes. We have all witnessed people in sports, business, etc., who trained and worked hard to achieve success. We call this the American Way. Can people continue to succeed on hard work alone?

There is one common denominator that is implied in the formula for self-confidence. It is success. You have heard it said, “Success breeds success.” However, success is not possible without self-confidence. That brings us back to the original question, how does this work.

The definition suggests the amount of ones belief is the key. If so, how do I assure that I have the right amount of belief. If I have less ability, do I need more belief and vice versa. I think we all struggle, some more than others, believing in our abilities. That is probably a good thing because if we did not, self-confidence would be replaced with arrogance.